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Advisor Newsletter
The Ziegler Advisor is an economic newsletter for institutional investors that provides fixed income, equity and general market updates. Subscribe to the Ziegler Advisor via our contact form.
- Ziegler Advisor, July 2010
July 2010 - Ziegler AdvisorFinancial markets grappled with second quarter economic information as improving cyclical indicators strained against the headwinds of secular economic concerns in a tug-of-war for investor confidence. Data reflect an improving economy, supported by low interest rates, excessive liquidity and vigorous growth in corporate profits. However, sovereign debt concerns, worries over increases in taxes & regulation and the deleveraging by consumers and the financial sector have cast a dark cloud over the budding recovery. - Ziegler Advisor, Apr 2010
April 2010 - Ziegler AdvisorThe economy continued to improve and riskier financial assets extended their rallies during the first quarter of 2010, as improving investor confidence led them to seek higher relative expected returns. However, investor trepidation was validated when a debt crisis erupted in Greece over the country’s profligacy and poor handling of Euro-zone rules. - Ziegler Advisor, January 2010
January 2010 - Ziegler AdvisorThere is still a great deal of uncertainty surrounding the economy and financial markets. While we're stressing a "middle of the road" approach for 2010, we believe the economy will continue to improve without igniting inflation. Improving economic conditions and increasing investor confidence should help support the turnaround. - Ziegler Advisor, October 2009
October 2009 - Ziegler AdvisorReflecting on the events of the last year, introspective investors have been forced to question whether the rules of investing have changed. Recent, seemingly incongruous moves across and within asset classes have pushed many participants to question whether they, or the markets had gone “mad” over the past year. With her leap into the world of wonderland, the classic tale “Alice’s Adventure in Wonderland” by Lewis Carroll provides a rich source of metaphors for describing recent markets. Just as Alice struggles to adapt to the rules of a strange new world order and behaviors she doesn’t understand, so too must investors grapple with a new roadmap for outperformance. - Ziegler Advisor, July 2009
July 2009 - Ziegler AdvisorThe economy appeared to be gaining some footing in the second quarter of 2009. Better-than-expected news was realized in the housing markets, as single-family starts increased for the third straight month in May. On the employment front, an apparent bottom was made by initial jobless claims at the end of March, accompanied by a slowing in payroll employment declines. These, and other, encouraging developments were cited by optimists as “green shoots” of evidence for improving economic activity. - Ziegler Advisor, Apr 2009
April 2009 - Ziegler AdvisorEconomic activity, as measured by almost any indicator, tumbled precipitously in the first quarter of 2009, making the current economic contraction appear to be the most severe since the Great Depression and leading some to characterize it as “The Great Recession of 2008”. - Ziegler Advisor, Jan 2009
January 2009 - Ziegler AdvisorThe election of Barack Obama as the nation’s 44th president resolved the uncertainty regarding the future occupant of the White House and provides some indication about the future direction for the country. Campaigning on a platform of “Change,” the president’s first order of business will be hammering out the details of his two-year economic recovery plan which intends to create 4.0 million jobs. - Ziegler Advisor, Nov 2008
November, 2008 - Ziegler AdvisorThe equity portion of the November Advisor provides a synopsis of recent market events and how Ziegler's behavioral finance approach has helped us uncover opportunities in this volatile market. On the fixed-income portion, we examine two indicators, the LIBOR-OIS Spread and TED Spread to analyze the risk appetite of short-term investors. - Ziegler Advisor, Oct 2008
October 2008 - Ziegler AdvisorToo Much Credit - These are historic times. The rapid decline in housing prices and the dramatic rise in mortgage defaults led to an epic credit crisis. The financial services industry is dealing with a distinct lack of liquidity while attempting to de-leverage from a multi-year period of cheap credit. This rapid de-leveraging has caused a change in the very structure of our capital markets. - Ziegler Advisor, Sep 2008
September 2008 - Ziegler AdvisorFannie and Freddie Continue to Worry Markets - The status of GSEs — particularly the equity securities which have declined 90% since mid-June — provided the greatest worry to markets in August. With no further details about the Treasury Secretary's plan to support the GSEs, the markets gave back some of the end of July gains due to the enthusiasm upon the initial passage of the GSE support plan. - Ziegler Advisor, Aug 2008
August 2008 - Ziegler AdvisorInvestors Come To Grips With Slower Economy - Equity market performance in July appeared relatively unexciting upon initial examination, with the S&P 500 Index declining by 0.84% during the month. However, this apparent lack of activity on the surface disguised the turbulent performance cross-currents exhibited across market segments. - Ziegler Advisor, Jul 2008
July 2008 - Ziegler AdvisorFour Catalysts Driving the Current Economic Cycle - Investors face a puzzling array of facts regarding the rate of economic growth: rising inflation, rising commodity prices and declining equity valuations. While the catalysts that move us through an economic or market cycle may change, the cycle typically plays out in a similar fashion. What changes is where the opportunities lie. - Ziegler Advisor, Jun 2008
June 2008 - Ziegler AdvisorEquities Rise Despite Economic Conditions - U.S. equity prices climbed higher during the month of May despite the prospect of a recession, which brings challenges such as downward EPS revisions, slumping consumer confidence and elevated oil prices. - Ziegler Advisor, May 2008
May 2008 - Ziegler AdvisorHigher Oil Prices are Likely to Pressure Dollar - We appear to have been in a transition period during April. Equity market turmoil subsided significantly and market liquidity improved, developments that we find encouraging. - Ziegler Advisor, Apr 2008
April 2008 - Ziegler AdvisorEconomic Cycle Creates Opportunities - Fear, greed, and panic move markets—and create opportunities. During January and February of 2008, investor uncertainty drove markets to extremes. When the Federal Reserve (the Fed) lowered interest rates to promote economic growth, the stock markets rallied. Then investors began to worry: Did the Fed know something about economic weakness they didn't? - Ziegler Advisor, Jan 2008
January 2008 - Ziegler AdvisorPolitics, Economy and Earnings on Radar for 2008 - As 2008 begins to unfold we will be focusing our attention on three issues that will likely determine how we make our investment decisions this year. Those issues are politics, the strength of the U.S. economy and the likelihood that U.S. corporate earnings will grow anywhere near where current expectations are.